Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1. Scope of this report

1.2. Efficient decision-making

1.3. The downstream benefits of efficient infrastructure decisions

1.4. Our approach and the structure of the report

2.1. Infrastructure decision delays

2.1.1. Improved timing of investments and providing flexibility in decision-making process to avoid future bottlenecks

2.1.2. Delays are driven by a range of uncertainties

2.2. Economic impact of infrastructure investments

2.2.1. Impacts of time saving in the IDM process

2.3. Wellbeing context

3. Waikato Expressway

3.1. 40 years of planning

3.2. Previous studies of the impact of the Expressway

3.3. Description of the direct impact of the Expressway

3.3.1. Economics and social impacts

3.3.2. Network performance and safety impacts

3.3.3. Tourism

3.3.4. Land use planning

3.4. Expressway’s impacts so far

4. Our approach

4.1. Measurement of the direct benefits

4.1.1. Feedback from the stakeholders

4.2. Capturing the downstream benefits

4.2.1. Our sub-regional CGE model

4.2.2. Inputs to our CGE model

4.2.3. Assumptions of our modelling

4.2.4. Our results

4.3. Total forgone economic activity from IDM delays

5. Conclusion and further discussion

5.1. The direction of policy frameworks

5.1.1. National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD)

5.1.2. Resource Management Act (1991) (RMA)

5.1.3. Direction of change and other relevant policy frameworks

5.2. Limitations of our analysis

Figures

Figure 1 Productivity gains from efficient infrastructure decision-making process lead to GDP gains and improved wellbeing outcomes for New Zealand communities

Figure 2 $1.29 billion annual cost of consenting projects

Figure 3 Strategy and business planning

Figure 4 Impact of supply shortage

Figure 5 The contribution of efficient infrastructure decisions to the Treasury’s four capitals

Figure 6 The timeframe for different phases of the Expressway

Figure 7 Waikato expressway sections as defined in March 2010

Figure 8 Improvements in commercial and industrial developments

Figure 9 Change in HCV travel in the Waikato Road network (2009–2019)

Figure 10 Share of each region from GDP of wholesales, heavy manufacturing and construction (%)

Figure 11 Growth in employment density and real house prices

Figure 12 Changes in GDP of sectors by location

Figure 13 Combined impact of RM system and planning regime

Figure 14 Real PPI – Heavy and civil engineering construction

Tables

Table 1 The wider economic impact of Waikato Expressway

Table 2 Description of the Do-minimum and the Expressway scenarios

Table 3 Comparison between Parker et al.’s HCV forecast and actual growth

Table 4 Macroeconomic impact of the Waikato Expressway

Table 5 Regional impact of Waikato Expressway

Table 6 Regional employment and wages

Table 7 Industry-level outputs

Table 8 Industry-level employment

Table 9 High level housing and infrastructure outcomes of NPS-UD and the RM reform

Table 10 Regional employment and wages

Table 11 TERM sourcing mechanism

References

Appendices

Appendix A. The operating cost of the infrastructure sector over time

Appendix B. PECGE model description and its closure

Appendix C. Waikato Expressway – estimated costs over time

Appendix D. Sourcing mechanism in the PE-CGE model